Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 16.679177 19.445339 22.479911 26.049487 30.126672 34.631403 39.978369
2024-10-06 12.461413 16.313235 20.987613 27.045031 34.650683 43.844596 55.756488
2024-10-13 10.163645 14.573469 20.361777 28.438854 39.327769 53.395000 72.821340
2024-10-20 8.012030 12.434364 18.644928 27.873781 41.079585 59.104396 85.329610
2024-10-27 6.259367 10.441434 16.684862 26.499250 41.302394 62.502152 94.772227
2024-11-03 5.681660 10.064497 16.946630 28.274203 46.103964 72.641645 114.515691
2024-11-10 5.315651 9.938800 17.533440 30.553616 51.829714 84.578940 137.888146
2024-11-17 4.647926 9.177831 16.964320 30.866333 54.439994 91.941797 154.868808
2024-11-24 3.975940 8.285090 16.028561 30.410263 55.683890 97.180112 168.852325
2024-12-01 3.352480 7.368448 14.907605 29.460050 55.934394 100.744114 180.311947
2024-12-08 2.937971 6.784802 14.303569 29.337846 57.562896 106.666121 196.054004
2024-12-15 2.601064 6.299630 13.813001 29.348813 59.394794 113.031143 212.966925
2024-12-22 2.123451 5.451937 12.538929 27.799481 58.384667 114.689505 222.532224
2024-12-29 1.934719 5.224256 12.516690 28.771522 62.347190 125.776818 250.102457
2025-01-05 1.804616 5.109484 12.717416 30.228061 67.418349 139.363737 283.385247
2025-01-12 1.544564 4.617514 12.002193 29.627253 68.250655 144.978300 302.221682
2025-01-19 1.273346 4.032853 10.971632 28.173537 67.115769 146.627422 313.557331
2025-01-26 1.226306 4.048635 11.379185 30.049618 73.298796 163.322867 355.543737
2025-02-02 1.206645 4.138642 11.982944 32.458176 80.884270 183.449986 405.798786
2025-02-09 1.088341 3.910988 11.739478 32.788536 83.831921 194.212967 437.878352
2025-02-16 0.950771 3.591119 11.199349 32.306719 84.852321 200.977998 462.203968
2025-02-23 0.812736 3.234276 10.495346 31.302747 84.518673 204.771066 480.531839
2025-03-02 0.722770 3.016054 10.144276 31.173617 86.268695 213.252555 509.449363